why move the goalposts focuses on downballot democrats

We entered the 2022 election cycle with Republicans holding narrow majorities in the NH House and Senate, buttressed by a GOP-controlled redistricting process that helped protect some marginal seats. We knew the 2022 elections would be close - and that the majorities were squarely in play.

As you probably know, Move The Goalposts methodically focused on those seats in the House and Senate most likely to make the difference, and the midpoint of our final House projection was 198 seats. This is exactly where it landed, and although it is disappointing for Democrats to not take back any of the House, Senate, or Executive Council, there are a few points worth remembering:

• House Democrats did gain about 11 seats between 2020 and 2022, despite the redistricting process working against us. 
• We did this despite a gubernatorial result that saw Gov. Sununu reelected by double-digits. As our analysis of the 2022 elections shows, most State House Democratic candidates outperformed their expected performance by 3-6 points - but started with the wind in their faces due to Sununu's strength.
• The modeling used by Move The Goalposts proved extremely accurate and predictive.  Already, we have improved the model using 2022 results to allow us to target resources even more strategically during the 2024 cycle. 

We know that many will want to spend their time, money, and attention on the top of the ticket in 2024. There is no US Senate race here this cycle, but the presidential race is on the ballot, as well as both congressional seats. These are obviously very important - but we also know there will be endless amount of money and volunteer hours directed at these races.

At Move The Goalposts, we recognize that happens here in New Hampshire, especially in the Executive Council, State Senate, and State House, really impacts your life. Democrats enter the 2024 cycle once again in the minority in all three of those bodies. And, based on the numbers, all three bodies are quite plausibly able to be flipped in 2024.

Over the last few years, because of the highly-disciplined coordination of Republican legislators on many critical issues, and the willingness of Governor Sununu to largely go along with their priorities, very narrow GOP majorities have translated into significant lurches to the right on many issues, including reproductive rights and the redirecting of public education dollars to private and religious schools.

A flip of three seats in the State Senate, two seats in the Executive Council, and a handful of seats (out of 400!) in the State House would have stopped so many negative actions from happening in the last few years. Those additional wins last November would allow Democrats to better project our positive alternative vision for New Hampshire's future over the next two years. 

In 2022, I analyzed the new districts drawn by Republicans during the redistricting process. Then, I sat down with upwards of 100 new candidates in these districts, adding qualitative knowledge to the quantitative work. I've took a deep dive into these districts across the state, and identified about 100 seats in the House, as well as key Senate and Executive Council districts, where focused, strategic support could make the difference between winning and losing. This includes vulnerable Democratic incumbents, as well as promising new Democratic non-incumbents.

Most of these targeted candidates were in the most competitive districts in New Hampshire - typically, communities that are within about four percentage points of the state's overall partisan leaning (or, PVIs between R+4 and D+4). In other words, these are largely the districts where the outcome depends on the quality of the candidates, and the level of resources and attention they are given.

We learned a lot, and we shared a lot of knowledge, dollars, and hours. Most of the these races were decided (win or lose) by less than 200 votes. This meant every $100 we got to them made a real difference. And that's great, because the work our downballot elected officials do makes a real difference in our everyday lives.

Which has brought us to 2024. The process described above for 2022 has been improved upon for 2024, and I've spent parts of the last 18 months sharing my research and findings with local Democratic committees and candidates. I hope to see you on the road shortly - send an email through this website if you'd like to host a gathering in your area to have such a discussion. And if you can make a contribution to our political action committee, know that it will go, as it has the few years, directly to support downballot Democrats in the most competitive districts in New Hampshire. Thank you!